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May 11, 2014

Equities started off last week relatively strong after an improvement in the ISM non-manufacturing index and PMI services index but were mostly down this past week. Somewhat off-setting was a weak reading on China's manufacturing sector. Equities were mixed at mid-week with techs being moderately on the downside. Markets reacted favorably to Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress which indicated continued loose monetary policy. Stocks were mostly down Thursday even as initial jobless claims fell sharply. Losses were led by the energy and utility sectors. Yellen gave a second day of testimony but with little additional comments on policy. On Friday, on little news, equities were little changed on low volume but generally up slightly. According to analysts some investors have started expressing concern that economic growth may not be strong enough to support stocks near record highs. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell a minimal 0.1% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) outperformed by rising 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) fell 1.3% and the small caps (RUT) led the downside off 1.9%. The divergence between small caps and tech vs. the Blue chips will eventually sort itself out but right now they are moving in opposite directions.



Option Volatility reacted much like stocks which was flat for the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) sits just below $13 as fear to the downside is low. Developments in Ukraine eased this past week on comments from Russia and option protection prices are reflecting the low risk.  Markets got what they wanted from Fed Chair Janet Yellen's Congressional testimony this past week—continued loose monetary policy and stocks are trading in a tight range. Hopefully the correction territory that small caps are in will spark some additional volatility this week.



Treasury yields this past week were down moderately on the short end. However, the 30-year bond rate rose notably. Yields were little changed but down marginally Tuesday ahead Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress. Violence in Ukraine also put downward pressure on rates. At mid-week, short rates eased slightly after Yellen indicated in Congressional testimony that a high degree of accommodation is still warranted. Also weighing on note yields were comments from the European Central Bank that it may cut rates next month if inflation remains low. The 30-year bond appears to be drifting upward as taper has become more certain. It is the long end that is most affected by reduction of Fed purchases of bonds.



Earnings season is winding down and it has so far been a decent quarter for corporations. The reatial sector will be in the spotlight as reports are due from Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS) and Wal-Mart (WMT). This week will also let us know if the spring is still providing improved economic data. Two of the biggest reports this week may help answer whether Q2 is picking up. Retail sales jumped in March and there may still be some "catch up" activity in April. Housing has shown little rebound in activity. The earlier report this week is the Housing Market Index which will give an important reading on buyer traffic. The following day, the housing starts report may show a pickup in momentum after employment picked up. Inflation data will also be in focus as reports on PPI and CPI are due.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  AMBC, ARNA, CVG, GFN, GOGO, MBI, MCK, RAX



Tuesday: DRD, TTWO, VTNR



Wednesday: A, CSCO, DE, M, PLUG, RMAX, VLP



Thursday:  AAP, ADSK, AMAT, CA, DDS, JCP, JWN, KSS, SINA, WMT



Friday: SJM



Economic Releases (5/12-5/16):

Monday:

11:00 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

7:30 am CT – Import & Export Prices

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

9:00 am CT – Housing Marker Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

                    

Thursday:

Fed’s Yellen Speaks

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –Consumer Price Index (CPI)

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

7:30 am CT– Fed’s Dudley Speaks

8:00 am CT– Treasury Intl. Capital

8:15 am CT– Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

10:50 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

aimei

tianfangye

thanks。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。

沁颍

8/19/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading firmly above yesterday’s strong close in anticipation of key CPI data due momentarily.  Global markets are all trending higher in concert as several geo-political hotspots are showing signs of cooling.  Euro stocks are up a 2ndconsecutive day off a lower than expected inflationary number which insinuates lower rates for the foreseeable future.  Japan has also been surging with a 7thconsecutive gain in today’s session.



Housing got a nice boost yesterday off a stronger than expected builder confidence number.  Home Depot has also validated the improvement with a solid quarterly report out this morning.  More housing data is slated today and will eagerly be watched for clues into future demand in the recovering housing market.  The 10 year US Treasury note closed at 2.40% yesterday which was the first rise in over 4 sessions.  Rates will likely become more sensitive over the remainder of the week with the Federal Reserve back in the spotlight with the most recent meeting minutes scheduled to be released tomorrow.



The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to slip and closed near a 2 week low at $12.32 yesterday off the equity rally.  Gold Futures (/GC) also closed near sessions lows below the $1300 level for the first time since early August as global tensions continue to unwind.  All eyes will be on the CPI today to gauge how inflation will dictate market direction for the remainder of the year.



Stock Stories:



Home Depot (HD) – We can build it!! – The do it yourself construction retailer saw quarterly sales rise by 5.7%  which well exceeded analyst expectations.  The company also bumped future guidance off stronger demand.  Shares are up 3% pre-market and have extended to a new all-time high.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Building Permits

7:30 am CT– Consumer Price Index (CPI)

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts



Notable Earnings:



Tuesday – 8/19:

Before Market: DKS, HD, MDT, TJX

After Market: LZB,YOKU



Wednesday – 8/20:

Before Market: AEO, EV, HAIN, LOW, MSG, PETM, PLKI, SJM, SPLS, TGT

After Market: CACI, HPQ, LB

沁颍

8/18/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are surging this morning  as a lull in geopolitical tensions over the weekend are forcing the iron-clad markets higher.  Talk of breaking the S&P 500 (SPX) 2000 milestone is once again resurfacing  with traders anxious to chase prices off the short-lived retracement last Friday.  Hong Kong Markets started off the week flat with disappointing housing data as the main culprit of a quiet session.  Japan’s Nikkei Average only ticked slightly higher by 4 points as well.  However, European markets are faring much better with several indices trending higher including Germany’s ultra-sensitive DAX.   The European benchmark has gained 1.5% up to this point in today’s session off renewed hopes of a potential cease fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.



Data will be light to start off the week with only a single housing  report slated today before a busy schedule commences for the remainder of the week. Other critical housing data will also be disseminated over the course of the next few days with both existing home sales and housing starts scheduled along with telling earnings from Home Depot (HD) and Lowes (LOW).   All eyes will be on the atmosphere around the Federal Reserve’s retreat in Jackson Hole with key appearances including ECB President Draghi later in the week.  Interest rates will likely be volatile around the event after the 10 year hit a 14 month low yield on Friday at 2.34%.  Treasuries will likely be the leading indicator for overall market direction over the near-term with any hint of an imminent rate hike certain to derail the renewed momentum.



Stock Stories:

Family Dollar (FDO) – Penny Pinchers? – Dollar General raises the stakes in a bidding war for Family Dollar by topping a recent offer from rival Dollar Tree.  The company is willing to spend $9.7 Billion to better compete against Walmart and other bargain retailers.  Shares of FDO are up $3 pre-market as a result which will mark a new all-time high for the company.



Major Economic Reports:

9:00 am CT – NAHB Housing Market Index



Notable Earnings:



Monday - 8/18:

Before Market: N/A

After Market: URBN



Tuesday – 8/19:

Before Market: DKS, HD, MDT, TJX

After Market: LZB, YOKU

沁颍

August 17, 2014   Weekend Update

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) still improved 1.2% over the last week to close at $1955.06 notwithstanding an early morning flush on Friday off multiple unsubstantiated reports of a Ukrainian offensive attack on a Russian convoy entering the country uninvited.   The Nasdaq (NDX) finished 2.2% higher with a string of positive earning reports lifting the tech-heavy index within striking distance of last month’s latest highs.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) briefly gave up 2014 gains until multiple blue chip stocks bounced back off an early afternoon relief rally to end at $16,662.91.   The Small Cap Index (RUT) wasn’t as fortunate with the risk-measuring benchmark continuing to lag the overall market and even closing into negative territory for the year.



Option Volatility saw an impressive 20% range to close out this past week in response to the temporary drawdown on Friday although the $13.15 closing price was still within the 50 day average . Treasury yields ended the week at a 14 mo. low  as bond purchases remained strong reacting to the news. The 10-year Note’s yield slipped all the way to the 2.34% threshold as the demand for the safety of U.S. treasuries has continued to explode. Rates have trended lower five of the last six weeks and continue to defy skeptics.  The 10 year German government bond pierced below the 1% level for the first time to close at 0.967% off fresh concern of Russia’s lasting influence on European markets along with the renewed appetite for monetary injection from the ECB.  Asian markets saw Hong Kong trading near six-year highs. The Nikkei also saw a 3.7% jump for the week which had closed prior to the Russian news. Oil futures (/CL) closed 1% higher on Friday at $97.24 although still seeing extended pressure below the century mark after reaching 2014 highs in June.  



Quarterly Earnings in the retail sector particularly will be closely monitored this week with powerhouses like Home Depot (HD) and Target (TGT)  both scheduled to release among others.  Consumer spending continues to hamper overall market optimism and will need to show improved signs of sustainability to justify current projections.  The FOMC will also return to the spotlight this week with last meeting’s minutes due for release on Wednesday afternoon just ahead of an important symposium in Jackson Hole to conclude next weekend.  The timing of an eventual rate hike will be paramount to overall sentiment for the second half of the year as Quantitative easing  phases out. Any subtle clues at the summit will likely be amplified as economists look for FOMC members to reveal the time frame when decisive action is finally expected to be taken.



Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week



Monday:

A.M. – N/A

P.M. – URBN



Tuesday:

A.M. – DKS, HD, MDT, TJX

P.M. – LZB,YOKU



Wednesday:

A.M. – AEO, EV, HAIN, LOW, MSG, PETM, PLKI, SJM, SPLS, TGT

P.M. – CACI, HPQ, LB



Thursday:

A.M. – BKE, DLTR, HRL, PLCE

P.M. – ARO, BRCD, CRM, GME, GPS, INTU, MRVL, NWY, PERY, ROST, SMRT



Friday:

A.M. – FL, HIBB

P.M. – N/A



Economic Releases (8/18-8/22):



Monday:

9:00 am CT – NAHB Housing Market Index



Tuesday:

7:30 am CT – Building Permits

7:30 am CT– Consumer Price Index (CPI)

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts



Wednesday:

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Minutes



Thursday:

7:30 am CT–  Weekly Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT–  PMI Mfg. Index Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

9:00 am CT – Philly Mfg. Index

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

All Day Event– Jackson Hole Symposium



Friday:

9:00 am CT – Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

All Day Event– Jackson Hole Symposium

沁颍

8/15/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are extending into positive territory ahead of August options expiration this morning.  No new significant geo-political headlines overnight are helping to push equities further on the path of least resistance which has been higher for most of the year.



Oil (/CL) is attempting to recover in early trading after slipping to the lowest level since early 2014 in yesterday’s session.  The benefits of cheaper energy costs have quietly played an immeasurable role on the recovering economy as of late.  Gold (/GC) is currently trading at weekly lows with global tensions easing into the weekend.  The 10-year Treasury yield remains just below 2.4% as weakness in Europe’s data may likely spell more creative monetary policy from governments for the foreseeable future even as the FOMC continues to plan their exit strategy.



Markets will be closely examining a slew of data to wrap up the week with PPI and Consumer sentiment being the most influential.  Mixed signals from consumers’ willingness to spend continues to baffle markets.  This essential component of the economy will only become more vital as the back to school shopping season will eventually usher in the year-end holiday windfall.  A rebound from last month’s disappointing 81.8 consumer confidence number will be key as a stronger 82.5 reading is expected later this morning .



Stock Stories:

Monster Beverage (MNST) – Buzzed – The Energy Drink Maker announced a long-term partnership with Coca-Cola after the close yesterday.  The beverage giant will also be acquiring  a 17% stake in the company which is being speculated as an eventual takeover step.  Shares are surging over 23% off the news in after-hours trading.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – PPI

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

8:00 am CT – Treasury Intl. Capital

8:15 am CT– Industrial Production

8:55 am CT– Consumer Sentiment

9:45 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks



Notable Earnings:

Friday – 8/15:

Before Market: EL

After Market: N/A



Monday – 8/18:

Before Market: N/A

After Market: URBN

沁颍

8/14/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are higher this morning following yesterday’s big advance. Russian President Vladimir Putin struck a mostly conciliatory tone while speaking in a much anticipated address, which has investors optimistic about the situation there in regard to Ukraine. Investors will be watching the jobless claims data at 7:30 am CT. Initial claims are expected to be 295K, while continuing claims are expected to be 2.5M. Option volatility fell again yesterday as stocks bounced higher. Despite the rise in stocks, volume has been low on up days which once again may point to less conviction by investors.



Global bonds along with U.S. Treasuries are higher after disappointing European data increased belief the ECB will have to inject more stimulus. Q2 Euro-zone growth stagnated with Q2 GDP slipping to unchanged, while German GDP contracted 0.2%. That's similar to Wednesday's action after the sluggish U.S. retail sales data boosted beliefs the FOMC won't be aggressively hiking rates sooner than expected. Also, U.K. house prices were weaker than expected. Yields have edged off their lows as stocks, especially European bourses have rebounded into the green. Today's U.S. data includes initial jobless claims and July trade prices, followed on Friday with July PPI, the August Empire State index, June TIC investment flows, and consumer sentiment. The Treasury completes its August refunding with the 30-year bond sale today at noon CT.



Stock Stories:

Cisco Systems (CSCO) – Plowed – The tech bellwether posted better than expected quarterly results last night after the bell. Although the stock has traded flat for years, calls for a replacement to the CEO are muted during his under-performance. Despite the earnings beat, CSCO shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Wal-Mart (WMT) – Flat – The retailer posted in-line quarterly results this morning. The CEO touts their ‘Solid’ EPS but headwinds remain ahead for the company. The shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Import & Export Prices

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-Year Bond Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 8/14:

Before Market:  MANU, PRGO, PDO, RRGB, WMT

After Market:  A, ADSK, AMAT, CEP, DDS, JCP, JWN



Friday – 8/15:

Before Market:  EL

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

8/13/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open as global markets are bouncing back. Oil prices have fallen to a 13 month low, which is also making investors optimistic. The lower oil prices have come despite the turmoil in Iraq and Russia and gloomy economic news from Asia. Monthly retail sales will be the main point of focus today and should give us more clarity on consumer spending habits. Option volatility was relatively flat yesterday as stocks bounced around the unchanged level.  Over the last year, monthly options expiration week has provided a positive boost to stocks and this week is shaping up to be more of the same.



Treasuries are lower as the ‘Risk-On’ trade is coming back. Yesterday’s 3-year Note auction results were weak and may be putting more pressure on Bonds in the near-term. We will look to the long end over the next two days for direction as auction results on the 10 and 30-year are due. Overseas markets were mainly higher but Japan’s economy contracted sharply in the second quarter after a national sales tax increase curbed consumer spending. Investors in the U.S. will be watching retail sales figures for July, business inventories for June and the weekly Department of Energy inventory reports.



Stock Stories:

Deere & Co. (DE) – Plowed – The farm equipment maker posted better than expected quarterly results this morning. Although the agricultural economy remains in a relatively healthy state, falling commodity prices are contributing to a reduction in farm income. The decline is putting pressure on demand for farm equipment, especially larger models. Despite the earnings beat, DE shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.



eBay.com (EBAY) – Auctioning off – The online retailer and auction site posted worse than expected same store sales according to Channel checks. Ebay continues to face headwinds from sales and the recent customer information breach. The shares are down over 1% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – down 2.7%

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

8:05 am CT – Fed’s Dudley Speaks

8:20 am CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday– 8/13:

Before Market:  CSIQ, DE, M, PF, SNE

After Market:  BGG, CSCO, NTAP, RMAX, SLW



Thursday – 8/14:

Before Market:  MANU, PRGO, PDO, RRGB, WMT

After Market:  A, ADSK, AMAT, CEP, DDS, JCP, JWN

qzhou3

回复 110# aimei

Yea, added a little bit TSLA today when it got to 256

hellofriend

aimei

谢谢月饼ＭＭ
ＴＳＬＡ　就是ｂｕｙ　ｄｉｐ

沁颍

8/12/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly higher but trading is quiet as the news flow over night was muted. Stocks rose Monday in a relief rally after multiple sell-offs over the last couple of weeks.  Small-caps led the rally and have out-performed the overall market in a sign that more gains for stocks may be on their way. There is little for investors to key in on as tensions have eased for now on the geopolitical front and the earnings season is near its tail end. There are no major releases scheduled from the economic calendar except the JOLTS data. Option volatility fell sharply yesterday as stocks rose throughout the session.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 10% and is now just above its 200-day moving average of $13.60.



Treasuries are slightly lower as the bond market sets up for this week's refunding auctions, which begins today with the 3-year Note results. Demand for the safety of bonds continues despite the recent rally in stocks. European markets are lower after key German economic-sentiment figures came in sharply lower than anticipated.Oil futures (/CL) are lower this morning after the International Energy Agency said world oil demand will rise less than anticipated. Today's data calendar is thin with just June JOLTS data, the July Treasury budget, and weekly chain store sales.



Stock Stories:

Tesla (TSLA) – Charged – Consumer Reports, which previously gave a high rating to Tesla's Model S, now says the car it owns has had "more than its share of problems." While the U.S. consumer magazine says most coverage is positive, it says there have been a few "quirks," including issues with the automatic-retracting door handles and a blank center screen. TSLA shares were up over4% yesterday but are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – up 0.7%

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales: -1.4% for week

8:45 am CT– JOLTS

12:00 pm CT – 3-Year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 8/12:

Before Market:  CTIB, TW, VAL

After Market:  CREE, FOSL, FTD, JDSU, KING, SYNC



Wednesday – 8/13:

Before Market:  CSIQ, DE, KATE, M, PF, SNE

After Market:  BGG, CSCO, NTAP, RMAX, SLW

沁颍

多谢支持。。。
回复 107# tianfangye

tianfangye

thanks...................................................