[讨论] Buying Gold Is a Mistake -- Stocks Offer Better Returns

何鸿燊

Buying Gold Is a Mistake -- Stocks Offer Better Returns James Altucher Says

Through the tumult of the last two years, few assets have held up better than gold. That, however, is no reason to buy the shiny metal, says James Altucher.

"It's had its run because we've had enormous fear in the market," says the Formula Capital founder in this clip. "Whenever there's such huge investment uncertainty, like we've had for the past decade, gold is going to go up."

It sure has.

Gold has increased five-fold in the last decade and currently trades for more than $1,200 an ounce. But, compared with stocks, gold is a laggard, he writes in a recent Wall Street Journal column:

"Gold reached its peak in 1980 when it reached $800 an ounce, which is $2,000 in today's dollars. So in real terms, gold has lost about 40% of its value since 1980. In the meantime, the stock market has gone up about 500% in real terms.

"Some other time frames for comparison: From 1975 (post the U.S. getting off the gold standard) to now, gold is up 500%. The Dow is up 900%. Gold was worth about $20 an ounce in 1800. Since then it's averaged a 2% gross return. Subtract out the costs of mining and storing gold, and what you have is basically a worthless rock that has a net negative return as an investment."

Besides, "gold will never write you a check," he says, comparing gold to dividend-yielding stocks. Altucher would much rather buy stocks that "consistently grow earnings and dividends over time." Not only will stocks like McDonald's, Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson pay a dividend, they, like gold, act as a hedge on the U.S. dollar, thanks to their large and growing international businesses.

Despite his stance against gold, Altucher does recommend buying one gold stock: Kingold Jewelry. "They're able to pass on the cost increase of gold to their customers, and if gold decreases, which I expect it will, they'll get a larger spread," he notes.


http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ti ... 46.html?tickers=gld,gdx,gold,fcx,jnj,pg,mcd&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

何鸿燊

國際大鱷撲向大陸黃金市場

    * 2010-08-23 01:19

　　在北京當局月初宣布鬆綁黃金市場後，索羅斯、羅傑斯等國際投資大師紛紛趁勢切入大陸黃金市場。其中，資產規模達250億美元的索羅斯基金管理機構在第2季繼續持有大量黃金投資。

　根據該公司提交的季度證券資料顯示，截至6月末，基金持有價值6.38億美元的黃金ETF（指數型基金），黃金ETF在投資組合內的比重由首季末的7%上升至13%。而且，索羅斯表示，將在北京及香港設立代表處。

　未來10年需求倍增

　與此同時，國際投資大師吉姆．羅傑斯日前在上海表示，全球經濟或將於2012年陷入新一輪衰退，一些長期國債市場正在形成泡沫，需要尋找更為安全的投資領域。據了解，羅傑斯今年頻頻接觸大陸的黃金投資企業，其中，恒泰大通黃金投資有限公司便是羅傑斯首次接觸的一家大陸黃金投資企業。據該公司負責人表示，羅傑斯與公司「目前已達成相關合作意向」。

　恒泰大通總裁王志斌說，從國際金融大鱷對中國和黃金市場的重視可見，大陸黃金價格年內再次刷新紀錄的可能性很大。

　除此之外，世界黃金協會（WGC）預估，未來10年大陸黃金需求將受益於私人需求增加，呈現倍數成長。

　8月3日，包括人民銀行及陸證監會等6部委聯合發表《關於促進黃金市場發展的若干意見》表示，將大力促進黃金市場發展，除鼓勵開發人民幣計價的黃金衍生商品外，還將開放外資介入大陸黃金交易。

　外資視為避險工具

　此後，在看好大陸國內需求的預期下，國際金價便一路狂飆，由最低每盎司1181美元攀升至上周五（20日）最高每盎司1236美元。

　大陸媒體稱，隨著投資者對於全球經濟「二次探底」的擔憂愈演愈烈，加上全球農產品價格快速上漲所帶來的通膨壓力，黃金作為避險工具將越來越受到外資的「偏愛」。